China Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion Again as Exports Jump

China recorded a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the second straight year, according to official customs data released Tuesday. The figure marks a milestone in global commerce that continues to draw scrutiny from trading partners.

Exports in October jumped 35.2 percent compared to the same month last year. Imports rose 41.6 percent over the same period. This sharp increase in both sides of the ledger narrowed the monthly surplus to $105.3 billion, down from $133.5 billion in September.

From January through October, the cumulative surplus reached $1.04 trillion. This trajectory places China on pace to exceed last year’s record of $1.2 trillion for the full year 2026. The growth in exports has been driven largely by high-tech products, including semiconductors and automobiles.

Dave Chia, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated that he expects Chinese exports to remain strong for the rest of the year. He identified electronics and autos as the primary drivers of this continued strength. The surge in imports was partly attributed to a recovery in crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, described the current situation as unsustainable. She pointed to overcapacity in many industries, excess domestic savings, and weakened domestic demand as factors pushing goods abroad. She noted that some countries are moving to protect their own industries in response.

Cinders Zhou, who sells eyewear for a manufacturer in Linhai city in Zhejiang province, said businesses are feeling the pressure of intense competition. She noted a lack of quality across the industry due to homogenization, which has forced companies to compete on price. Her company makes frames and lenses sold both in and outside China.

Exports to the United States grew 32.9 percent in October compared to the previous year. This growth built on a low base following the impact of Trump’s elevated tariffs on trade last year. Exports to the European Union rose 24.3 percent in October and 17.2 percent for the first ten months of the year.

The trade surplus with the United States stood at approximately $266.5 billion for the first ten months. The difference with the European Union was more than $310 billion over the same period. In 2025, the EU recorded a trade deficit with China of roughly $410 billion, which amounted to more than $1.1 billion each day.

Semiconductor exports soared 137.1 percent in value in October compared to the year before. Auto exports rose 37.6 percent. Chia warned that China’s exports could be vulnerable to setbacks in the artificial intelligence industry, a concern deepened by public backlash against data center expansion following U.S. midterm elections.

Wang Xin, head of the Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Association, said U.S. and European trade policies have added difficulties for Chinese businesses expanding in those markets. A two-month extension of a trade truce until January has provided some relief to exporters. Leaders are set to meet next week in Shenzhen on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where trade is expected to be a top agenda item.