Israel votes in tightly contested election shaped by a rightward shift

Israel is holding a closely contested national election on Tuesday, a vote widely described as one of the most consequential in the country's history. It is the first since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the war in Gaza that followed, as well as a wider conflict in which Israel has struck Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Qatar.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister, is asking voters to extend his time in office after leading what is regarded as Israel's most right-wing governing coalition, a grouping of far-right ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. He is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza and is also facing a long-running corruption trial. Facing him is a self-described Zionist opposition bloc that has largely adopted a right-wing approach to the country's challenges.

The campaign was dominated by questions over accountability for alleged security failures, disputes over military service for the ultra-Orthodox, and efforts to exclude Arab-led parties. Expectations were already low that the result would improve the lives of Palestinians, with deadly attacks continuing almost daily in Gaza despite a yearlong ceasefire, and with settler violence and army raids intensifying in the occupied West Bank.

Analysts say the shift to the right predates the latest government, formed in 2022. They point to the collapse of the peace process and repeated security crises, which gradually weakened the political centre and left, and to measures such as the 2018 Nation-State Law. Most agree the pace has quickened under Netanyahu's current coalition, which has been accused of trying to remake the country in its own image. Critics cite attempts to curb the Supreme Court's power to review government actions and the disregard of its rulings on conscripting the ultra-Orthodox, along with the roles of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Netanyahu denies the bribery, fraud and breach of trust charges against him.

Ahron Bregman, an Israeli analyst and senior teaching fellow at King's College London, said a change of leader, for example Gadi Eisenkot becoming prime minister, would first alter the atmosphere. "He's a very divisive figure. A new prime minister is likely to calm things down," he said. He added that respect for process and the rule of law would probably return, but cautioned that Israel "turned sharply to the right" after October 7 and any new government would reflect that.

Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, framed the stakes more broadly. He described the choice as one between a functioning democracy and "a democracy in name only," and between maintaining the occupation of the West Bank or annexing it and pursuing the "voluntary migration" of its population, as figures in the government have suggested.

Observers say the ballot offers no real chance to challenge a foreign and security policy that has underpinned the killing of more than 74,000 people in Gaza, rising violence in the West Bank and several wars, including one on Iran that has disrupted key energy routes and unsettled global markets. None of the mainstream candidates has spoken of bringing Arab-led parties into a coalition, and references to Ra'am or the Joint List are mostly used by rivals to attack one another.

Sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani argued that ultra-Orthodox parties would be welcome in either coalition, while Arab-led parties representing Palestinian citizens, one-fifth of the population, would be shut out. Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, said the treatment of Palestinians is a consensus among Zionist parties, with differences mainly over whether oppressing Palestinians is the state's job or whether settler militias also have a significant role.