Census changes could alter federal funding

The U.S. Census Bureau will close its public comment period on proposed 2030 census rules on Monday, Nov. 2. County officials across North Carolina are racing to submit feedback before the deadline, warning that the changes could reduce the population figures used to allocate federal money.

The proposal, signed by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, was published on Sept. 10. It would fundamentally alter how the government counts residents for congressional apportionment. Under current rules, the census counts everyone who usually lives in the United States, regardless of citizenship or legal status. The new plan would limit that count to American citizens and lawful permanent residents, often called green card holders.

This shift would exclude undocumented immigrants, but also legally present residents such as international students, temporary workers, and people with humanitarian protections. The Census Bureau argues that these changes better align with constitutional requirements for representation. The agency states that usual residence involves durable ties to the country, not just physical presence.

Local officials disagree. The North Carolina Association of County Commissioners highlighted the issue in a newsletter sent on Oct. 30. The group warns that excluding residents who use local services could create a mismatch between the population count and the actual number of people requiring government support. The National Association of Counties has also urged its members to file comments, noting that census data guides the distribution of more than $2.8 trillion in annual federal funding.

Guilford County faces particular exposure to these changes. The county is home to large immigrant communities in Greensboro and High Point, as well as major universities including UNC Greensboro, North Carolina A&T State University, Guilford College, and High Point University. Under the proposed rules, international students who are not citizens or permanent residents would be excluded from the apportionment count, even if they live in the county for years.

The proposal also changes how students are counted. Currently, the Census Bureau counts students where they live and sleep most of the time. The new rules would base residency on where a person has lawfully spent the greatest number of days between Jan. 3 and April 1 of the census year. This change could complicate counts in college towns and areas with high population mobility.

Another major change involves the survey questions. The Bureau proposes to ban questions about race, ethnicity, and sexual orientation on the decennial census form. It would still allow questions about biological sex, date of birth, and household relationships. County officials argue that removing race and ethnicity data could hinder civil rights compliance and redistricting efforts. The Bureau notes that these details can still be collected through other programs like the American Community Survey.

The plan also expands the use of federal administrative records, such as tax and immigration files, to verify residency and legal status. While supporters say this improves accuracy, critics worry it may lead to errors for people with complex living arrangements or those who do not file tax returns. The legal standing of excluding certain residents remains uncertain, as the Constitution calls for apportionment based on the whole number of persons in each state.

Guilford County's population was 541,299 in the 2020 census. By July 2025, the Bureau estimated the population had grown to 562,234. County leaders are currently analyzing local data to determine how many residents might be excluded under the new rules. The final impact on funding will depend on how federal agencies use the resulting data, but the comment deadline remains Nov. 2.