Jaguars Take 10-Point Lead as Ravens Turn to Rookie Joe Fagnano

The Baltimore Ravens will start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano on Thursday night in Jacksonville. The move is necessary because both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are out with injuries. Jackson has a thumb issue, and Huntley is dealing with a toe problem. The Jaguars, who beat the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday, hold the top spot in the AFC South. Baltimore has lost its last three games and enters this matchup as a 10-point underdog.

The betting lines shifted sharply after the injury news broke. Before the announcements, the Ravens were favored by three points. The price now shows Jacksonville favored by 10 points, a 13-point swing. The total points line for the game sits at 40.5. Fagnano made his first appearance in relief against the Buffalo Bills last week. He completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards and threw one interception.

The Jaguars defense presents a major hurdle for the Baltimore offense. The unit allows only 15.9 points per game, the second fewest in the league. They generate pressure on 39% of dropbacks. If the Ravens fall behind early, the pressure could disrupt Fagnano's rhythm. The running game will likely be the primary focus for Baltimore. They rely on Derrick Henry to carry the ball, but the Jaguars lead the league in run defense, allowing just 77.4 yards per game.

Jacksonville will be without defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton. On offense, running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. may see more carries if Bhayshul Tuten cannot play due to an ankle and foot injury. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns on 14 attempts last week. If the ground game works, Lawrence may again have a limited passing role. The Jaguars average 59.1 plays per game, ranking 26th in the league, and run the ball on 48.3% of snaps.

The Jaguars have scored 55 points off takeaways this season. A short field could result if Fagnano turns the ball over. Strategic factors suggest Jacksonville can control the pace. If Henry maintains momentum, Baltimore might stay within the total. If Fagnano struggles, the Jaguars may score quickly.

Player props show specific trends. Trevor Lawrence averages a league low of 5.1 fourth-quarter dropbacks per game. His passing yards line is set at 235.5, a number he has gone under in four of his seven games this season. Lawrence has had at least three rushing attempts in four straight games. The over on his rushing attempts is 3.5.

Zay Flowers has cleared his 46.5 receiving yards line in six of his seven games this season. He went without a catch on five targets against Buffalo, but that was with a quarterback called into action abruptly. With more preparation time, Fagnano may target Flowers more often if Baltimore remains a double-digit underdog.