Luxon and Hipkins face off as New Zealand election polls show razor-thin margin

New Zealanders cast their votes on Friday, the final day of a campaign defined by a tight race and economic anxiety. Polling data released that same day shows the two major parties separated by only 4.3 percentage points.

Infrastructure New Zealand, an industry association, conducted the survey that put the Labour Party at 30.7% and the National Party at 26.4%. These figures suggest the incumbent government may struggle to secure a mandate. The centrist Opportunity Party, led by Qiulae Wong, polled at 5.1%, placing it just above the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. This position makes the smaller party a potential kingmaker in coalition talks.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who leads the National Party, told supporters and media that the race is tight. He urged voters to ensure they cast their ballots, noting that the only poll that truly matters is the result on Saturday night. In a separate news conference, Labour leader Chris Hipkins expressed confidence that his party would emerge as the largest in Parliament. Hipkins, who served briefly as Prime Minister before losing to Luxon in 2023, stated that he was banking on Labour being the biggest party but declined to discuss specific coalition partners yet.

Voting closes at 7 p.m. on Saturday. From midnight on Friday, a strict silence period began, prohibiting all campaigning and advertising. Parties must remove election signs, and media outlets are barred from posting content that could influence the outcome. Advanced voting opened on October 26. By Thursday, the Electoral Commission reported that nearly 1.67 million people had already voted, a figure exceeding one-third of eligible voters. Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, a coalition partner, voted in Auckland in front of media on Friday.

The election takes place against a backdrop of a faltering economy. Unemployment reached 5.7% in the third quarter, the highest level in 11 years. Households face pressure from inflation, rising food and petrol prices, and strained budgets. While house prices have stabilized, affordability remains a major concern for voters. The government also faces a structural budget deficit and rising public debt.

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional system, making single-party governments rare. There are 71 geographical constituency seats and 49 list seats distributed based on party vote shares. If no party wins a majority, negotiations begin immediately. In 2023, it took 41 days for National, ACT, and New Zealand First to sign a governing agreement. Officials expect a similar timeline this year, with official results releasing on November 27 after overseas and special votes are counted.