Midterm shifts put national popular vote compact within reach

Twenty-two electoral votes separate the current coalition from the 270 threshold needed to activate a plan that would effectively bypass the Electoral College.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact currently includes 18 states representing 222 electoral votes. If enough additional states join, the arrangement would require the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide to receive the electoral votes from all participating states.

This mechanism would transform the presidential race from a contest focused on a handful of swing states into a battle for the national majority. The idea has roots in two recent elections where the winner of the popular vote did not secure the White House.

In 2000, George W. Bush defeated Al Gore despite losing the popular vote. In 2016, Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton through a similar margin. These outcomes fueled support for the compact among Democrats and some nonpartisan advocates.

Tuesday’s midterm elections delivered a major boost to the effort. Democrats gained full control of state governments in six states: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Together, these six states represent 71 electoral votes.

Minnesota has already joined the compact. It secured its 10 electoral votes for the plan during a period of full Democratic control in 2023. The remaining five states now hold the balance of power.

Wisconsin Governor David Crowley expressed readiness to act. He noted that his party now controls the state legislature for the first time in 16 years. "We can do away with it," Crowley said of the Electoral College. He added that he is interested in having conversations with the state legislature.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, also voiced support. Speaking on a podcast over the weekend, he stated that the national popular vote makes sense. "My views on that have not changed," Shapiro said. He pledged to work with lawmakers to determine the right mechanism for moving forward.

If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin join the compact, the coalition would need only two of the remaining three states (Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada) to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold.

Not every new Democratic governor has committed to the plan. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs declined to say if she favored joining the compact during a television interview on Monday. She emphasized that her top priorities are addressing affordability, securing the border, protecting water, and supporting public education.

Nevada offers a cautionary example for supporters of the measure. In 2019, then-Governor Steve Sisolak vetoed a bill to join the compact after Democratic majorities in both legislative chambers passed it. Sisolak argued the idea would diminish the influence of smaller states.

Democrats passed another measure in 2023 but could not overcome a veto from the then-Republican governor. The new administration of Governor Aaron Ford did not respond to requests for comment regarding the compact. Michigan’s new Governor Jocelyn Benson also did not respond to comment requests.