Poll: Democrats Lead House Race as Trump Job Approval Hits Low

A new national poll released Monday indicates Democrats hold a lead in the race for control of the U.S. House, despite structural disadvantages created by recent redistricting.

The survey, conducted by Marist for NPR and PBS News, polled 1,289 registered voters between October 19 and 20, 2026. The margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, while it is 3.8 points for likely voters. This marks the first time in this election cycle that researchers applied a likely voter screen to the data.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 38% among registered voters, with 61% disapproving. Among likely voters, the numbers shift slightly to 40% approval and 59% disapproval. Fifty-three percent of both groups reported they strongly disapprove of the president’s performance, a figure tied for the highest ever recorded in this polling series. Trump’s personal favorability is even lower, with only 37% of likely voters holding a favorable impression.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats maintain an 8-point advantage among likely voters and a 10-point lead among registered voters. Historically, leads of this magnitude have resulted in Democratic gains of at least 30 seats in the House, as seen in 2006 and 2018. However, analysts note that mid-decade redistricting efforts by Republican states have tilted the map in their favor, potentially capping the size of any Democratic wave.

Enthusiasm levels show a distinct partisan divide. Seventy-one percent of likely Democratic voters described themselves as very enthusiastic to vote, compared to 61% of likely Republicans. Despite this, key Democratic demographic groups show lower energy than expected. Only 42% of likely voters under 45 and 53% of non-white voters reported high enthusiasm. In contrast, 68% of MAGA voters and 66% of white women without college degrees expressed high enthusiasm.

The cost of living remains the top issue for voters. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said their personal finances have worsened in the past year, while 44% reported no change. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona, cited food and gas prices as primary drivers of his vote. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," Maurice said.

Views on election integrity show a sharp partisan gap. Three-quarters of likely voters expressed confidence that state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election. However, 28% of Republicans said their preferred candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results if they lost. That figure rose to a higher percentage among MAGA supporters, who were twice as likely to say their candidate should challenge the outcome.