3.7%: Inflation rate drives voter shift against Republican economic record

The AP Voter Poll indicates that President Donald Trump’s economic record was the primary driver behind recent election results. The survey, which interviewed roughly 100,000 registered voters, found that a majority of Americans attributed rising prices directly to the administration's policies. This sentiment translated into a loss of support for Republican candidates across House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.

Consumer prices increased by 3.7 percent over the 12 months leading up to the election. This figure exceeds the 3 percent inflation rate recorded at the start of the president’s second term. The economic pressure was compounded by specific policy actions, including the imposition of tariffs on foreign imports and the launch of a military conflict with Iran in February. These events contributed to a spike in energy costs that many voters linked directly to their household budgets.

Voters expressed clear dissatisfaction with the administration’s approach to the economy. About two-thirds of respondents stated that Trump’s own policies fueled inflation. This perception contrasts with the 2022 midterm cycle, where only about half of voters held a similar view of President Joe Biden’s economic management. The AP VoteCast data showed that voters in states ranging from California to Mississippi agreed that import taxes had done more harm than good to their financial stability.

The president maintained a confident posture during his final campaign stops despite these polling trends. At a rally in Iowa, Trump told supporters that prices were coming down. He acknowledged the impact of the Iran conflict on gasoline prices but argued that the military action was necessary to address Iran’s push for nuclear weapons. He stated that if faced with the same decision again, he would make the same choice.

Economic anxiety remained the top concern for most voters heading into the election. Approximately 90 percent of voters identified the cost of living as a crucial or major factor in their decision. Among this group, about 60 percent supported Democratic candidates in their local House races. This preference for change indicated a desire for a congressional majority that could exert more pressure on the executive branch.

Despite the political backlash, key economic indicators remained strong. The S&P 500 stock index rose more than 10 percent in 2026, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent. Investors reacted positively to the election results, with stocks rising on Wednesday. However, this growth was largely driven by the expansion of the artificial intelligence sector, a boom that the administration has supported by limiting federal oversight.

Voters viewed this technological growth with more skepticism than the president. About 60 percent of respondents believed that artificial intelligence would do more harm than good to society. Concerns included job displacement due to automation and the risk of a financial bubble affecting retirement savings. Only about one-quarter of voters considered AI a crucial factor in their voting decision, prioritizing immediate household costs over long-term technological trends.

Wealth inequality also played a role in voter sentiment. Nationwide, about 70 percent of voters felt the economy favored the wealthy, while only 30 percent believed it was fair to everyday Americans. This sentiment held true even among higher-income voters, with a majority of California households earning over $300,000 feeling that the system was tilted toward the rich. Most voters indicated that government policies had worsened healthcare costs, leading 60 percent to want a larger federal role in addressing medical expenses.

The election results revealed a split in voter priorities based on income. Households earning less than $50,000 were primarily concerned with economic stability, with 60 percent saying they were worse off than two years prior. In contrast, households with incomes above $200,000 were more concerned with the state of American democracy. About 40 percent of these higher-income voters listed democracy as their top issue, a concern that aligned more closely with Democratic candidates.

The AP Voter Poll was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press and partner news organizations from October 19 to November 3, 2026. The survey margin of sampling error is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample.