Four key House races will show if Democrats win back the majority

Early polls closing in Kentucky and Indiana will give an early sign of how the night is going. Races in Florida, Michigan, and Iowa will show where both parties think the saying 'It all comes down to turnout!' is more than a cliche. Redistricting has made some districts more competitive, and races in Arkansas and North Carolina will show how far into conservative communities the increased support for Democrats can go.

The first results of the night with national implications will likely be from Kentucky's 5th Congressional District (KY-06) and Indiana's 5th (IN-5), two districts where polls close first (in the 6 p.m. ET hour) and whose 2024 margins for President Trump (15 and 17 points, respectively) could act as a preview for how much voters have soured on Republicans. Democrats and Republicans alike have spent heavily in the Kentucky race, where Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado, so the increased investment is worth noting as a factor on the outcome. If Democrats flip one or both of these races, then it will likely be a long night for the GOP.

Florida also counts and reports its votes quickly, and is home to more than a half dozen races that are viewed as toss-ups or slightly favor one party or the other, so as these districts have projected winners there will be more insight into other races across the country. Like the Kentucky contest, both parties have spent significant sums in races like the open seat in FL-22 with Democrat Pia Dandiya facing off against Republican Casey Askar and incumbent Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz versus Republican Scott Singer in the newly-redrawn FL-25 race.

Three of Iowa's four House races, IA-01, IA-02 and IA-03 are on the list of most expensive, in part because of the competitive governor and U.S. Senate races that are also on the ballot and driving up turnout. Other races to watch: CO-08, PA-01, WA-03, WI-03

A look at the four types of House races to watch on election night.