House Races Favor Democrats, But Map Changes Could Shrink Gains

Democrats hold a lead in the general congressional ballot, but the path to a majority in the House appears narrower than past midterms suggest.

A survey conducted by NPR, PBS News, and Marist between Oct. 19 and 20 found Democrats ahead by 10 points among registered voters and 8 points among likely voters. The study polled 1,289 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.7 points for that group and 3.8 points for likely voters. Historical data indicates that leads of this size often result in major seat flips. Democrats gained an average of 7 points in 2018 and 12 points in 2006, flipping at least 30 seats in both cycles.

The 2026 election cycle presents a different structural reality. Redistricting following the 2020 Census has shifted the balance of power. Additionally, a mid-decade map redraw requested by President Trump has given Republican states the opportunity to adjust boundaries. While Democrats responded by redrawing maps in some jurisdictions, the net effect of these changes currently favors the Republican Party.

President Trump faces high disapproval ratings that typically benefit the opposing party. Only 38% of registered voters approve of his job performance, with 61% disapproving. Among likely voters, the split stands at 40% approval and 59% disapproval. Fifty-three percent of both groups expressed strong disapproval, matching the record high set in the previous month. Just 37% of likely voters hold a favorable view of the president.

Enthusiasm levels among Democratic voters reveal potential vulnerabilities. While 71% of Democratic likely voters are very enthusiastic about voting, that figure drops to 61% for the group as a whole. Specific demographics show lower energy despite high disapproval of Trump. Only 42% of likely voters under 45, 53% of non-white voters, and 56% of white women with college degrees reported high enthusiasm. In contrast, 68% of MAGA voters, 66% of white women without degrees, and 61% of white evangelicals are highly energized.

Party confidence also varies. Ninety-eight percent of Democratic likely voters plan to vote for a Democrat, but only 81% expect their party to win. Republicans are 10 points less likely to believe their candidate will prevail. A desire for change influences the electorate, with 55% of likely voters stating that new ideas are more important than party loyalty. Forty-four percent of likely voters described their choice as a vote against Trump, compared to 21% who said it was a vote for him.

Independent voters and swing groups play a decisive role. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona who leans Democratic, cited food and gas prices as primary concerns. He described costs as too expensive for everyone, regardless of past voting history. Matthew Schroder, a 38-year-old independent in Charlotte, N.C., voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. He opposes what he perceives as a growing embrace of democratic socialism on the left and plans to support Republican Michael Whatley over Democrat Roy Cooper in the Senate race.

Trust in the election process remains high for most but divides along partisan lines. Three-quarters of likely voters believe state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election. However, Republicans are 20 points less confident than Democrats on this issue. About a quarter of Republicans said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results if they lose.

Economic concerns dominate the voter agenda. One-third of respondents reported financial hardship in the past year. Thirty-eight percent said their personal finances had worsened, while 44% said they remained the same. On specific policy issues, 60% of the public said new data centers would mostly harm the country, and 66% opposed having one in their community. Sixty-one percent support a legal path for immigrants who meet certain requirements to stay in the country. Opinions on guns are nearly even, with 48% prioritizing stricter laws and 46% prioritizing gun rights. Fifty-seven percent believe the government is almost always wasteful and inefficient.