Religion and voting habits diverge in 2026 midterms

Political identity and religious belief are becoming increasingly tangled in the lead up to the November elections. A new analysis of national polling data reveals a split in how Americans view the functioning of their government based on their level of sympathy toward Christian nationalism.

Andrew Whitehead, a sociology professor at Indiana University Indianapolis and a research fellow at the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, presented the findings from a survey of more than 23,000 adults. The data suggests that while the number of Americans strongly identifying with Christian nationalism is dropping slightly, religion remains a central theme for candidates and voters.

Whitehead noted that approximately 14% of the U.S. population strongly embraces the ideology, while just over 16% are at least sympathetic to it. Christian nationalism is defined as the belief that Christianity defines the nation and that the government should take active steps to maintain that status.

Despite the decline in strong adherence, Whitehead said the rhetoric is more present in national discourse than in the past. He attributed this to figures in federal government and media who continue to use the language of Christian nationalism. "So fewer Americans embrace it strongly, but it is much more a part of our national political discussions than it ever used to be," he stated.

The survey results show clear demographic patterns. Among white Americans, 31% are at least sympathetic to the ideology. Men are slightly more likely to hold this view than women, with 33% of men and 28% of women expressing sympathy. Political party affiliation is the strongest predictor, as 55% of Republicans either strongly embrace or sympathize with Christian nationalism.

Whitehead explained that those who embrace the ideology and those who reject it see the current state of democracy in opposite ways. Americans who strongly embrace Christian nationalism believe democracy is functioning well. In contrast, very few Americans who reject the ideology think democracy is doing well or even okay.

The nearly 70% of respondents who resist or reject Christian nationalism are highly motivated to vote in the upcoming midterms. Whitehead said this group wants Congress to check the power of the executive branch, a process he said has not been effective in the first two years of the current administration. Five Democrats who are clergy or in training for the clergy are currently on ballots for Congressional races this cycle.