Cook report rates five former Trump states as toss-up Senate races

The Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas as toss-up Senate races. These are states where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. The report also lists Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, South Carolina, Mississippi and Nebraska as competitive. North Carolina is rated likely to flip to Democrats. Georgia and Ohio are rated likely to hold for their current parties.

Democrats need to take a net of four Senate seats from Republicans to win control of the chamber. The National Republican Senatorial Committee called the Democratic surge a fever pitch. Bernadette Breslin, the group's national press secretary, said voters in red-leaning battlegrounds are preparing to reject the agendas of Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Troy Jackson in Maine and Mary Peltola in Alaska.

Breslin referred to a controversy in Alaska about the alleged involvement of Mary Peltola's campaign in recruiting Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Dan Sullivan. The New York Times first reported the story. Gillibrand, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said she is energized by the field. She noted that many candidates are running in deep red and purple places and winning.

In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper is the likely winner. President Trump said Cooper is going to become the state's senator during a stop in the state earlier this month. Trump won the state by three points in 2024. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers. Rogers is a former moderate Representative who has adopted a MAGA stance. Trump won Michigan by one point in 2024.

Ohio is a toss-up because Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, is challenging incumbent John Husted. Brown was ousted in 2024 but has high name recognition. Trump has recently commented on Husted's physique to boost him. Democrats are using the economy, gas prices and AI data center growth to attack Republicans. Trump won Ohio by 11 points in 2024.

Texas is a toss-up with State Representative James Talarico facing Attorney General Ken Paxton. Trump endorsed Paxton over Talarico's more established opponent in the primary runoff. More than $500 million has been spent on the race since the primary, with Republicans contributing more than $300 million. Talarico has led in almost every poll, though by small margins. Trump won Texas by 13 points in 2024.

Maine is a toss-up between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson. Maine was one of only three states won by Kamala Harris in 2024. South Carolina is a lean Republican race between Annie Andrews and Darline Graham. Trump won South Carolina by 18 points. Minnesota and New Hampshire are lean Democratic races. Minnesota is moving slightly toward Republicans in the final days, but Democrats hold the edge. New Hampshire is a top Republican target, but Rep. Chris Pappas is the slight favorite.

Mississippi and Nebraska are likely Republican wins. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is running against incumbent Ricketts. Georgia is a likely Democratic win for Raphael Warnock. Trump won Georgia by two points in 2024. Ossoff's candidacy and funding have made him the heavy favorite. The Cook report rates Georgia as likely D.