Democrats favored to take House in midterms amid economic frustration

President Donald Trump faces a tough election environment as his approval ratings hit record lows and voters blame his administration for rising prices. The president was elected in 2024 with a mandate to lower costs, but data suggests that goal has not been met. Instead, many Americans are feeling the pinch of inflation that is outpacing wage growth, making it harder to buy homes or cars.

A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 44% of respondents said their finances have mostly stayed the same. Another 38% reported that their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% said their financial standing has improved. This sentiment is driving anger among swing voters and energizing Democrats as they prepare for the midterm elections.

Historical patterns favor the opposition party during midterm cycles. Since World War II, the president’s party has gained seats in the House only twice. On average, the ruling party loses 26 seats in these elections. The trend worsens when the president’s approval rating drops below 50%, a situation Trump currently faces. In those cases, the president’s party has lost an average of 35 seats. When approval ratings are above 50%, the average loss is 15 seats.

Trump has acknowledged the difficulty of midterms for the governing party at multiple campaign events. Democrats have performed well in special elections and off-year races during this term. The political situation for Republicans has deteriorated further due to the war with Iran and high gas prices, which have directly impacted consumer costs. These factors have led analysts to predict that Democrats are favored to win control of the House and are close to taking the Senate as well.

Structural challenges remain for the Democratic Party. The Cook Political Report identifies about 30 fewer competitive districts this year compared to 2018. In 2018, Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 seats. Mid-decade redistricting has also benefited Republicans. An NPR analysis estimates that redistricting fights gave the GOP a net advantage of eight seats. Trump explicitly encouraged state legislatures to draw maps that favored Republican candidates.

Voter turnout and demographic shifts will play key roles in the outcome. Republicans need high turnout in red states to prevent large Democratic gains in the Senate. A small shift in Senate control could swing from one or two seats to six or seven based on turnout levels. Trump has traveled to red states to urge his base to vote, aiming to counter the economic headwinds facing his party.

Democrats also face internal dynamics. While the party is not universally viewed positively, self-identified democratic socialists are highly engaged in this election. The same poll found that 44% of respondents viewed their vote as a vote against Trump, while 21% saw it as a vote for him. This group may turn out in large numbers to check the president’s power, though differences in approach may emerge as the 2028 presidential primary season approaches.

The 2028 election cycle will begin shortly after these midterms. It will be the first major election after the Trump, Obama, Biden, Clinton, and Bush eras. Candidates seeking national attention may announce their intentions as early as January or February. For now, the focus remains on Tuesday’s vote, where Republicans admit privately that Trump is a mixed asset. He is essential for the base but toxic for swing voters.

Most races will be called by election night, but some key contests may take days or weeks to resolve. Trump has already prepared the ground for claims of irregularities if the results are close. A recent poll found that a quarter of Republicans believe their candidate should not accept the results if they lose. This stance leaves room for potential disputes and misinformation in tight races.

If Democrats fail to win the House, it would be a major surprise given current polling. The economic strain on families and the ongoing war have significantly eroded support among voters who backed Trump in 2024. The results will determine the balance of power in Congress and set the stage for legislative battles in the coming years.