UF Election Lab: 42 Million Early Midterm Votes Show Democratic Lead

More than 42 million Americans have voted in the midterm elections, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab. The numbers suggest a turnout level comparable to the 2018 cycle, which produced the highest midterm participation since 1914.

Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, said the current enthusiasm favors the Democratic Party. He noted that registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are showing high engagement, while registered Republicans are voting at lower rates. Democrats account for 44% of early votes, compared with about 31% for Republicans.

McDonald predicted that the overall turnout could break records. He cited increased participation among young voters and minority groups as a key factor. "Makes me believe that this electorate is going to be the most diverse electorate for a midterm election in U.S. history," McDonald said. He observed high engagement among African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans, but noted lower participation among white voters.

The data has limitations because voting rules vary by state. McDonald pointed out that states like Maine, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska typically see only about a third of their votes cast early. These states differ significantly from those with heavy mail voting or large in-person early voting operations.

While Democrats hold an early lead, McDonald said Republicans are likely to close the gap on Election Day. Polls will close on Tuesday, November 3, and results will not be announced until after that date.